Bubble Watch: Auburn's true nemeses emerge

The bubble feels smaller than ever

When TNT analyst Bruce Pearl — recently retired Auburn head men’s basketball coach, father of current Auburn head men’s basketball coach Steven Pearl, and University of Auburn ambassador — first questioned Miami University’s at-large credentials, he created an obvious dichotomy. It was clear to any viewer that Pearl, in talking about Miami, was really talking his own book.

Casting doubt on the Redhawks’ at-large chances meant a spot might open up for Auburn. Duh. Because everyone could see this motivation clearly, the arguments since have often focused disproportionately on an imaginary contest between those two schools alone.

What record would Miami have with Auburn’s schedule? Would this Auburn team be 31-1 if the roles were reversed? The pairing was extreme: One team had an incredible record and no big wins against a bad schedule. The other had a terrible record and a win over Florida against a great schedule.

Then Miami kept winning. The Redhawks finished 31-1, and in doing so more or less guaranteed their at-large spot, Thursday’s hilariously deranged takes notwithstanding.

Auburn, though? Auburn stayed on the bubble. Auburn is no longer in competition with Miami. Indeed, as the cut line firms up one day before the selection show, it has become clear who the true enemies of Auburn men’s basketball and the success of the Pearl dynasty really are:

The University of Texas. (Also maybe Oklahoma.)

BracketMatrix’s composite field had Texas as the last team all day on Friday. It had Auburn as the first team out. There seems to be a fair amount of consensus, if not outright groupthink, on this: Auburn was selected in just 20 of the 121 brackets submitted to the matrix. But should there be? Here’s UT’s team sheet:

And here’s Auburn’s:

Again, we’re talking about the difference between the last team in and the first team out, so distinctions are hard to draw. But are we sure — however marginally — that Texas has the better case? Both teams have 17 wins. Auburn has slightly better metrics. It played a vastly better schedule. It also went out of its way to play a great nonconference schedule, too (while Texas’s ranks 228th) … there’s a case you can make.

Of course, you could also say that one of these two teams has lost 16 games, which is disqualifying then and there, and we wouldn’t argue. Frankly, on this bubble, and with these two teams, we have a hard time forming a strong opinion either way. Both teams are blah. It’s almost a matter of personal taste. Flip a coin, if you’d rather.

The point is broader: After weeks of mid-major vs. power conference selection discourse, after all that Miami back and forth, this is who Auburn is in actual bubble competition with: another mediocre 17-win team from their own league. It’s more accurate, but less dramatic.

Automatic bids from non-Bubble Watch leagues: 22
Locks: 35
Should be in: 5
Work to do: 2
Waiting game: 9

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ACC

We have taken Virginia Tech off the page. Why? Because Virginia Tech took itself off the page:

This is wild, right? On the one hand, we maybe sort of get it: Guys don’t want to play in the NIT, a number of them are going to leave for the pros or transfer, coaches are being hired earlier and earlier in the calendar, you want to get a head start on whatever the next roster looks like, etc. Fine. On the other, much more important hand: Selection Sunday hasn’t happened yet! It’s tomorrow! Virginia Tech was still on the page! Nothing is official. We didn’t think the Hokies would get in, obviously, and we didn’t think they’d end up particularly close. But what sort of number would you put on Virginia Tech being a random, out of nowhere selection surprise. Five percent? Ten? You don’t want to see how it plays out? If you had a five percent chance to win a poker hand, and you don’t have to bet again to see the river, would you just get up and walk away from the table?

We’re not sure we’ve ever seen a bubble team, even a real long shot, formally end its own postseason before it knew the committee’s decision. Hokies, guys: What are we doing?

Lock: Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Miami, Clemson
Should be in: NC State
Waiting game: SMU, Stanford