Bubble Watch: Bigger, not better

Tourney expansion is upon us, and the bubble reveals its final form

Photo credit: USA Today Sports

Some news from Monday night: The NCAA Tournament is likely getting bigger, though not as big as we’d all feared. From The Athletic:

With less than two weeks to go before Selection Sunday and the release of the men’s NCAA Tournament bracket, college basketball insiders are prepping for an expanded field in the very near future. Exactly what that looks like needs to be carved out in various committee meetings, but there is less likelihood that the tournament will swell much beyond the current 68 teams.

“We’re not talking about 96,’’ said a college administrator who was briefed on the conversations, but who has not been authorized to speak publicly. “There is little to no appetite for 96 teams, or really even 80.’’

You’ll notice we didn’t say good news. This is just … news. It’s important to keep that in mind.

Indeed, the initial temptation here was to be excited. At least they’re not doing 96! Have you seen the 96-team projected field? It’s a disaster. In that context, with the alternative possibility of a world in which LSU would currently be on the bubble, a more marginal tournament expansion doesn’t seem so bad.

And hey, would it be the end of the world? Maybe not. A couple more play-in games on Tuesday and Wednesday wouldn’t kill anyone. It would require us to reorient the bubble cut line target down to some teams that would seem too weak to go dancing by comparison, to some areas of this year’s bubble (for example) that we have since put away, and that would take some getting used to, but we’ve managed it before. Even if you can’t really convince us that the NCAA Tournament would be better with more teams, you can at least make the argument it wouldn’t suck.

But this is the argument we can’t stand:

“The NCAA has to be proactive,” the source said. “Expansion — modest expansion — may be the only way to keep the tournament we all know and love alive.”

Or, and just hear me out here, the people who want to blow up the tournament — major conference commissioners and TV execs looking to reinvent a wheel that rolls perfectly smoothly already — could just stop. It’s very strange to have a thing as perfect as the NCAA Tournament that people seem so determined to mess up, that requires a proactive defense from malicious outside forces. Everybody just leave the tournament alone. Is that really not possible?

Anyway: Enjoy the 68-team bracket while you can. This might be the last one.

Housekeeping:

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ACC

Pretty incredible stat from our friend Brendan Marks during Duke’s win at NC State Monday night: Per Synergy data, Duke freshman Jared McCain is shooting — wait for it — 61 percent from 3 in transition. Sixty-one percent! It felt like McCain was automatic on those looks, but in basketball “that guy’s automatic on those shots” usually translates to, like, 42 percent, or whatever. It’s extremely rare to see a guy shoots anything remotely close to that sort of number situationally.

Duke could maybe run a bit more, then, if only to get McCain some more of these shots. Still, the Blue Devils have been quietly cooking lately (including putting up 73 points in 63 trips on Virginia’s fearsome defense Saturday) so Jon Scheyer doesn’t need our unsolicited advice.

Locks: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson
Work to do: Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Syracuse

Wake Forest (18-11, 10-8; NET: 31, SOR: 58): Was the whole court storming debate really just last week? Was last week’s Bubble Watch the one we led with a big defense of court storming, about the moments it made for the Wake Forest fans who got to enjoy it, about how it’s a core part of the culture of college hoops? That was last week, right? Because it feels like a long time ago. In the week since that marquee breakthrough win, Wake Forest lost twice, at Notre Dame and at Virginia Tech. Combined, the two defeats just about squander the benefits of beating Duke on your own floor; now the Demon Deacons are right back on the cut line where they were before the Duke game. It’s like that game didn’t happen! Imagine all of the discourse we could have avoided!

Pittsburgh (19-10, 10-8; NET: 44, SOR: 55): Pittsburgh probably needed to win at Clemson Tuesday. There’s nothing wrong with losing there, of course; Clemson is good. But the Panthers have been playing from behind for weeks, scrambling to get on the right side of the bubble before time runs out, and when you’re doing that it’s not enough to merely hold serve against Boston College. You have to go above and beyond. Pitt had a real chance at Clemson — played well there, too — and now is out of marquee Quad 1 chances, at least before the ACC tournament.

Virginia (21-9, 12-7; NET: 49, SOR: 34): We’ve given up trying to understand Virginia. The Cavaliers have had several seasons in one, from the promising early start to four blowout losses in six games in December and January to a stretch of eight straight wins (including at Clemson) to, most recently, another four-losses-in-six slide punctuated by disastrous blowout margins and a complete lack of viable offense. The Hoos scored 41 points at Virginia Tech, 44 against North Carolina, 48 against Duke. Virginia has never been great offensively this season, but damn, man. What even is that? The same question applies to Virginia’s resume, which is now 2-6 against Quadrant 1 and 6-3 against Quadrant 2, with no truly “bad” losses (ND away is now Quad 2, for whatever that’s worth) and no truly elite wins. Virginia should still be in the field, but if they lose to Georgia Tech Saturday, what then? This has been a profoundly strange season, and it’s not over yet.

Syracuse (19-10, 11-8; NET: 84, SOR: 40): Look everybody: Syracuse made it! This is the Bubble Watch equivalent of an old friend showing up to the bar and picking up exactly where you left off. This is a big, familiar pat on the back for the Orange, who are one of the more regular Bubble Watch fixtures of the past five or six seasons — a near-constant presence in Jim Boeheim’s late-career dawdle that disappeared last season and nearly missed all of this one. So: Can this team actually get in the field? After four straight wins and Feb. 13’s home victory over North Carolina, there’s at least an outside chance, but whatever happens from here has to include a road win at Clemson Tuesday night.