Bubble Watch: Miami's at-large case is not complicated (at least not yet)

Helpful reminder: The Redhawks still haven't lost a game

We knew these arguments would happen. We always assumed the most interesting bubble team of 2026 — Miami University (Ohio), obviously — would be subject to this exact discourse eventually. We just thought they’d have to lose first.

That was the funniest and most jarring thing about the storm former Auburn coach Bruce Pearl stirred up Saturday. We had to double-check Miami’s record. Did we miss something? Did they lose a game we thought they won? They’re still undefeated, right? Pearl’s comments were incredible that way — they appeared to come from an alternate factual universe:

“Miami (Ohio), here’s the deal. Are we selecting the 68 most deserving teams? Or are we going to select the 68 best teams? If we’re selecting the 68 best teams, then Miami (Ohio) is going to have to win their tournament to qualify as a champion. Because as an at-large, they are not one of the best teams in the country. And that’s going to be a difficult choice for the committee to make.”

Um, no, sorry. That’s not the deal? Again, crucial reminder: Miami (Ohio) still has not lost a game. They’re 29-0. Friday night’s win over Western Michigan was dicey, sure: Travis Steele got a technical foul and knocked over a courtside DJ’s speaker before the Redhawks hit a buzzer-beater to escape Kalamazoo with their 29th win of the season. But escape they did.

You can understand why Steele looks so stressed: He knows better than anyone what’s at stake any time the Redhawks take the floor. One little loss, and everyone will freak out. The “but look at their schedule, are they really that good, are we sure we don’t want a middling bubble team with a 2-8 Quad 1 record to get in the field instead?!” takes will go into overdrive.

But Pearl got a head start on the nonsense. Crucially, he is not an uninterested observer. Besides being a TV analyst for TNT, Pearl is still a paid ambassador for Auburn athletics. His son is also the current coach. Pearl engineered that succession in the fall, when he abruptly left the program and forced Auburn to hire assistant Steven Pearl, who was unlikely to have received the job if Auburn had done a typical springtime coaching search. The younger Pearl started the season 14-7 and well on track for an at-large bid, but his team has lost seven of the past eight; they’re now 15-14 and very much at risk of missing the field if current form holds. Beyond wanting his own son to do well for straightforward parenting reasons, Bruce Pearl also kind of needs him to do well, lest his entire forced nepotism gameplan goes haywire.

In other words, no, Pearl was not making an argument in good faith. But he doubled down again Monday, telling Barstool he wasn’t “so sure” Miami wouldn’t finish “last in the Big East.” This would be an unpopular opinion for any broadcaster to have. People like successful mid-major teams this time of year; fans tend to want to support them. Coming from Pearl, with his obviously conflicted motivations, it was enraging. There is no constituency for this opinion.

It’s also just silly on the merits! Miami’s case is not complicated. The Redhawks would be in the field if the bracket was made today. They would almost certainly be in the field if they enter Selection Sunday with one loss. Yes, their schedule is bad, they’re in the 80s in most of the predictive metrics, and no one would argue they’re some dominant force on a par with Fred Van Vleet-era Wichita State. But they are undefeated. There is no precedent for leaving out an unbeaten team like this.

Moreover, Miami’s wins above bubble metric — the NCAA’s cherished measure of how a team’s results stack up against the average bubble squad — ranks 32nd. They have outperformed the average bubble team even against their own schedule. If Auburn is the prototypical bubble team, they probably wouldn’t also be 29-0 against Miami’s schedule, is the point. That alone is enough to usher them into the bracket, wherever they end up being seeded.

This is not a real conversation right now. Really can’t stress that enough. It might be Tuesday night, if Miami slips up against Toledo. It might be Friday, if the season closer at Ohio breaks bad. But it’s not a thing today. Results matter. Winning games matters. There is no world in which Auburn — or Indiana, or Cal, or USC, or whatever other mediocre high-major you want — is either more deserving or “better” than a team with 29 wins and zero losses.

Everybody stop it. (Especially Bruce Pearl.)

Housekeeping and miscellany:

• Want to hear more about Bruce Pearl and Miami? Check out this week’s podcast! There’s that, a big section on yet another crop of super-dominant teams making statement wins down the stretch, and a fond farewell to Chad Baker-Mazara, among much more. Like, subscribe, leave a review, and so on:

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ACC

We have to say: We’re a bit heartened to see Steve Forbes is not immediately on the hot seat:

That’s Trilly Donovan’s latest hot seat tier list. Wake Forest is in the “next year” tier. This feels like a quiet but crucial shift, a nod to a more sophisticated college athletics landscape. For years, people (us included) have written that every season is a crucial one for Forbes at Wake, that this really has to be the time he makes the tournament or else. In a different era, there was a strict years-to-tournament-appearances counter in situations like this; eventually, you would just run out of time. But things are different now. Not all jobs are created equal. Resources vary widely. By all accounts, Wake Forest doesn’t have the same money as many other high-major programs, ACC or otherwise. It’s a hard place to win. Forbes has consistently put good teams on the floor, has the respect of plenty of athletic directors, and would likely get another job immediately if Wake Forest let him go, and most of all it feels like people recognize all of this in a way they simply wouldn’t have been willing to, say, 10 years ago.

It’s not that every coach deserves unlimited patience now; quite the opposite. Some coaching changes should arguably happen faster than ever before. (Georgetown fans don’t need to be patient right now at all.) But it does feel like athletic directors as a whole are getting more clued in about diverging baseline expectations, the challenges of different jobs, and what good coaching performance looks like holistically — beyond the simple yes-or-no of tournament appearances. Wherever Wake fans stand on Forbes, it does feel like the whole sport is getting smarter.

Lock: Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina
Should be in: NC State, Miami, Clemson
Work to do: SMU, Virginia Tech, California

NC State (19-11, 10-7, NET: 29, WAB: 40): Will Wade’s postgame comments have been high comedy for the past few weeks, but Duke seemed to break him: He left Monday night’s presser without once ripping into his team or calling them soft. Fair enough, honestly: What’s the point? Duke is so much better than everyone that Wade didn’t expect to get anything out of a home game; he was so desperate he threw in a one-day-old junk defense NC State hasn’t used all season. It didn’t help. The good news is the Wolf Pack, as ugly as some of their losses have been, and as rough as the 1-5 record in their last six has felt, didn’t need a result against the dominant Blue Devils to remain in the projected field.