Sixteen thoughts on the Sweet Sixteen, part two
What we're thinking about before Friday's games
Straight in to part two. See here for part one:
East Region
No. 5 St. Johns vs. No. 1 Duke (Friday, 7:10 pm ET)
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 UConn (Friday, 9:45 pm ET)
9. Can St. John’s offense be more than transition and Zuby?
On the one hand, yes: Bryce Hopkins just made six 3s against Kansas. Asked and answered! On the other hand: come on. Hopkins had made 25 3s all season before last Sunday. This is not something anyone should expect to happen again.
This remains the big question for the Johnnies, and the reason why (despite thought No. 10 just below this) we expect Duke to win the game. St. John’s is one of the best transition teams in college basketball. Or, at the very least, one of the most transition-dependent teams in college basketball. When they are running — playing off their aggressive defense, flying at you with all that length and interior finishing skill — they can be super-efficient. But as we saw against Kansas, Hopkins or not, when they have to run half-court stuff, they can get totally bogged down.
The bad news: Duke is really good at playing transition defense.
Whatever modern hybrid space-y stuff Jon Scheyer has adopted (and adapted) on offense, this Blue Devils team practically plays a Bo Ryan style when it comes to sprinting back on defense. (It used to be teams like Ryan’s and Tony Bennett’s would intentionally eschew offensive rebounds to get back into their half-court defensive shell, but Duke is incredible at doing both. No. 1 overall seed for a reason.) Duke ranks 343rd in the country in defensive possession length, per KenPom. They really don’t let you get up and down. And so when they don’t — and presumably, unless something goes totally haywire against St. John’s, they won’t — the Johnnies are going to have to figure out how to get into some sort of offense in the half court.
Zuby Ejiofor will be fine. He might even knock down a couple of 3s of his own, as the Blue Devils attempt to force him away from the rim. But Dillon Mitchell and Hopkins and Ian Jackson and Oziyah Sellers — all of these guys have to find more flow than what they conjured up against a Kansas team with less athleticism, length, and switchability than Duke. They have to figure out a way to be a surprise.
10. Is this Cam Boozer’s nightmare matchup?
Whatever ugliness you can see in your mind’s eye for the St. John’s offense, it’s not like these guys can’t guard on the other end. They’re pretty great at that. And indeed: They might be the ideal team to play against the most productive player in all of college basketball. They fit him perfectly.
Boozer is often a brute interior battering ram, and does most of his best work over his left shoulder, but most of all he’s a matchup problem. He can handle the ball and make elite reads. He can draw switches and punish them. He can step out and hit 3s. Guarding him well requires a very specific type of player — not a center, not a 3, not even a typical power forward, but a guy with similar size and mobility who is comfortable playing in all of the same zones. Like, say, Virginia’s Thijs De Ridder, who played a big part in Boozer’s worst game of the 2025-26 season (a high bar, but still) in the ACC tournament title game. De Ridder is a 6-foot-9 forward-wing with strength and foot speed; he looked like a plausible, visible counter to Boozer even back on Feb. 28, when the Cavaliers got blown out in Cameron.
St. John’s has like three of these guys.
