Virginia needs to shoot more 3s

Just because it's obvious doesn't mean it's wrong

Photo credit: Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images

Sweeping pronouncements are always tempting. They are satisfying; they make you feel like you have it all figured out. Team X just needs this one simple thing to change its season entirely! Team Y doesn’t have what it takes to win a title! Team Z are frauds!

These types of analyses are rarely true. Basketball is a complex collective activity. Teams are organisms unto themselves. Parts are interrelated and interchangeable and difficult to parse. Opponents get to do tactics, too. You can’t boil every team’s performance down to one simple factor, or put the onus on any one player, or dismiss any of it with one grand claim. Or at least you shouldn’t try.

Except today, right now, in this newsletter, in which we can can say something extremely simple and obvious that could genuinely help a team play better offense right away with almost no caveats:

Virginia needs to shoot more 3s. The evidence for this is overwhelming.

Begin with Tuesday night’s home loss to Pittsburgh. Most of the credit for the win should go to Pitt: The Panthers were completely dialed in offensively, with Jeff Capel running well-spaced high ball-screen stuff and playing through Virginia’s hard hedges, creating advantages and generating a steady supply of open looks. Pitt made shots, yes, but Pitt also played in such a way as to turn Virginia’s aggressive, disruptive defensive makeover against it, to turn UVa’s new strengths into weaknesses. The Panthers were great. Sometimes you tip your cap.

But, also, like: Pittsburgh made 14 3s. Virginia attempted 14 3s. You can tip your cap, but you don’t tie one hand behind your back before you do so.

The following chart sums it up nicely: Virginia is simultaneously one of the best 3-point-shooting power conference teams in the country and also one of the very least likely to attempt a 3: