Bubble Watch: OSU vs. who

The Buckeyes fall and the bubble changes. But how much?

Photo credit: Associated Press

On Wednesday morning, we noted that the bubble looked … well, if not entirely settled, exactly, then certainly more codified than we’re used to, even this time of year, when every team usually has one or two games left to play. We counted 72 teams for 68 spots. We saw a clear gap between the hopefuls still on the page and everybody else. There’s still some musical chairs, sure, and there is always the chance the committee does something unexpected. (It happens almost every year, in fact.) But still, at least relative to most seasons, the 2025 bubble felt … calm. Quiet. Just about done.

And Ohio State was probably on the right side of it.

Then Wednesday happened. The Buckeyes lost to a very hot Iowa in the first round of the Big Ten tournament, the Hawkeyes suddenly looking like the team we thought Fran McCaffery would mold them into in October, before a dreary season marked by apathetic, half-filled home arenas. It was not a horrible loss by any stretch. But it was a loss, and Ohio State really, really couldn’t afford a loss.

True story: The last time any selection committee gave an at-large bid to a team just two wins above .500 was in 2001. (Shout out to Jordan Schwartz in the Buzzer live chat for the tip.) The team was Georgia, the coach was Jim Harrick, and we’re still not entirely sure how a 16-14 group with this collection of wins ended up being a No. 8 seed. Probably the RPI’s fault. It was a long time ago, is the point. It was a vastly different era. In bracketology terms, it might as well have been the Pleistocene.

This leaves us with very little confidence about OSU’s chances come Sunday, and that’s putting it mildly. The precedent simply isn’t there. Nor have the Buckeyes played the kind of brutal schedule, in or out of conference — the Big Ten is good, but it is not the SEC, and OSU ranks 40th in noncon strength of schedule — that justifies 15 bleeping defeats. Meanwhile, there is a storied tradition of desperate bubble teams losing early in their league tourneys and waiting a whole week while the bubble shrinks around them and everyone forgets they existed in the first place. OSU feels like this season’s torch-bearer.

On the other hand, what this introduction presupposes is … what if none of that is right?

More precisely: What will this committee care about? Jake Diebler’s guys did beat six quadrant 1 opponents, after all. North Carolina, by comparison, has still managed merely one. Texas beat a fellow likely tournament team (Vanderbilt) in Kansas City Thursday, but it had all season in the nation’s best league to do more, and its collection of top-end wins is hardly better than OSU’s (with similar metrics and a much worse noncon SOS). You could see a committee of people ignoring the overall record precedent — or just not even knowing or caring about it at all, and maybe rightfully so, conceptually — and making an argument in favor of the Buckeyes over a bunch of these teams. On the other hand: Maybe Ohio State wasn’t even in the bracket before Wednesday. We don’t know! It would have been super close either way.

How much has really changed?

The emergence of bid thieves could change this calculus, of course. But the Wednesday picture doesn’t feel quite as fundamentally upended as it did when the OSU result first came in. The Buckeyes might well be done. History suggests they are. The call of the hot take — the temptation to make a definitive declaration the moment the buzzer sounds — is always there.

But this year we wouldn’t be so sure.

(One thing we are sure about: John Calipari is one of the funniest human beings alive. Another thing: Steve Pikiell deserves a lot more heat for not getting Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper anywhere close to the NCAA Tournament. More on these pressing issues below.)

Automatic bids: 24
Locks: 33
Should be in: 6
Work to do: 10
Waiting game: 2

The usual housekeeping:

• As mentioned Wednesday, we’re essentially treating this as a running file that we send out to subscribers every morning. Some team blurbs may not be updated if said teams haven’t played a game since last writing. Sometimes they will be anyway! (Most of them are.)

• Some email providers impose limits on email length. This is a long file, so if your email cuts off, be sure to click through to the site itself (where you can use the navigation on the left side of your screen to scroll to conference sections quickly!) to read it all.

• There are almost certainly typos in the below copy. We are our only editor; this is a one-man show. If you spot factual mistakes or think we missed a team or a relevant piece of info, get in touch in the comments or shoot me a note.

• NET and SOR are always current as of the previous day. Records are always up to date. Thanks as ever to Warren Nolan for his immensely helpful site.

• We wrote all of this, by hand, as nature intended. If you would like to support these efforts (and be able to comment, and join the live chats, and — at the founding tier — do a regular Zoom call with us to talk hoops, and stick around throughout the ever-morphing coaching and portal insanity to come) please consider a paid subscription today. Thanks!

ACC

What an eventful Wednesday of ACC tournament action! You could feel the enthusiasm coursing through the Spectrum Center, and frankly all of the greater Charlotte area. Jim Boeheim and Corey Alexander continued to hone their electric on-mike chemistry. Virginia lost to Georgia Tech a few minutes before issuing a statement that Ron Sanchez would not be retained as the university’s head men’s basketball coach. (We didn’t know that. We just — you’re telling us now for the first time. In seriousness: It was a fairly sad end to a distinct Virginia era, one that we will unpack in more detail soon.) SMU was there! Stanford and Cal played each other! In the ACC tournament! In Charlotte!

Woof.

Peja Stojakovic did tell Ted Valentine to f*** off, though. So that was fun.

Lock: Duke, Clemson, Louisville
Work to do: North Carolina, Wake Forest

North Carolina (21-12, 13-7; NET: 40, SOR: 44): Probably the most valuable aspect of North Carolina’s 20-point win over Notre Dame Wednesday was the chance for one more in-person scout — and maybe even a little facetime! — with Irish guard Markus Burton. It never hurts to get an early start on the portal! (That sound you hear is Notre Dame fans throwing things at us. Sorry guys. We ducked.) A metrics-boosting win is never a bad thing, obviously, but what Carolina really needs, what it has always needed, is quality wins. This team played a top five noncon schedule. It is 8-0 against quadrant 2 and has just one non-quad-1 loss (against a pretty solid Stanford, albeit at home). The problem has always been the 1-11 quad 1 record. That problem is ongoing. (Maybe a less-ongoing problem: UNC’s much-derided bigs have played a lot better of late. Against bad competition, sure. But still.) Thursday’s game against Wake is also a must-win, obviously, but mostly because it gives the Tar Heels a chance to actually change the nature of their team sheet and give the committee an excuse to let them in if they can topple Duke Friday night.