The Sweet Sixteen vibe report

Thoughts on every game, and story, of the weekend

Ah, the Sweet Sixteen. Not quite far enough along in this process to be preemptively sad that the tournament is about to be over, but no longer in the stage of innocence and wonder of the first Thursday morning. A middle ground. A between place. Not a girl, not yet a woman. Etc.

As we’ve already written, we are extremely excited about this particular Sweet Sixteen. While the rest of the world laments the lack of upsets and surprises, and grows concerned over the consolidation of major-conference power and money — all valid worries, by the way — we can’t help but find ourselves fixated on a remaining field that promises the end to this season it deserves: highly skilled, diversely talented, strategically varied. It’s going to be great.

Below, then, are thoughts on every Sweet Sixteen matchup, featuring analytical breakdowns but also a healthy dose of narrative and vibes. Because, after all, the NCAA Tournament — even this NCAA Tournament — is nothing if not a meeting of the two.

Oh, and one other reminder: Join us for this weekend’s live chat! The threads for the rounds of 64 and 32 were a rousing success, the perfect complements to all-day hoops viewing, and we’ll be back at it non-stop throughout the second weekend, too. See you in there.

No. 6 BYU vs. No. 2 Alabama, 7:09 pm ET, CBS

Of any game of the weekend, this has the chance to be the purest, best, most distilled expression of modern college ball. This is where we are now, or at least where we are fully heading: two teams who spread the floor, run optimized stuff, and exploit every available margin.

To wit, here’s Alabama’s shot chart from the 2024-25 season:

Image credit: CBB Analytics

LOL. And here’s BYU’s:

Image credit: CBB Analytics

Now: There are some subtle differences in how both teams go about getting these shots — BYU is absolutely not as hellbent on getting up the floor as quickly as Alabama — but the end results for Kevin Young’s team are functionally the same as Nate Oats’. You take a 3, or you get to the rim, and when you get to the rim if a clean shot isn’t there you kick it back out the perimeter and begin the process anew. Midrange attempts are essentially verboten. Expect to hear a lot of “well, this is the analytics, they love the analytics” stuff from Brian Anderson and Jim Jackson on the call. It will be tinged with a hint of disgust. Your mileage may vary. We happen to be thrilled that college basketball has become a big enough tent to include NBA-style influences like Oats and Young, while also allowing Ben McCollum to play the slowest tempo in recorded history and still take Drake to the second round of the tournament. It’s great! And it’s all fun to watch!

One note here: BYU’s average defensive possession length. The Cougars, for as modern as they are offensively, rank 302nd in Division I in the amount of time it takes for opponents to finish offensive possessions. Temporally, anyway, they defend not unlike a classic Tony Bennett-era Virginia team. Alabama, as you might expect, scores and ends possessions extremely quickly. The ability of BYU to get back in a defensive shell on makes and (more importantly) misses, take away transition action and easy rim runs, and force Alabama to shoot over the top of a set defense, will decide this game. Tennessee has managed it multiple times; there’s good reason to think the Cougars can pull it off, too.

No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 1 Florida, 7:39 pm ET, TBS